100 1   Futhl Al-Deen, Dania Thafer.  
245  0 Iraqi oil :|ba potential shift in regional dominance /    
       |cDania Thafer Futhl Al-Deen.   
260    Abu Dhabi :|bThe Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and
       Research,|c2013.   
300    74 pages :|bcharts ;|c24 cm.  
490    Emirates occasional papers ;|vno. 80  
504 0   Includes bibliographical references and notes (p. 61-62).
505    Introduction -- Changes and Challenges in Iraq  --        
       Contracts Awarded -- The Dominant Player -- Saudi Arabia: 
       The Dominant Player -- Scenarios: Can Iraq Attain Full    
       Capacity -- Political Situation -- Conclusion.    
520 0   Iraq is a conundrum. Its complexity can be understood by 
       considering its location. It is a historically dynamic    
       region situated on the Eurasian supercontinent at the     
       junction of the Levant, Greater Persia, the Anatolian     
       Peninsula and the Arabian Peninsula. This alone presents a
       wide range of social and political implications, which    
       contribute to the materialization of a country that hosts 
       divergent groups partitioned by religious and ethnic      
       lines. Despite Iraq’s potential capacity of 12 million    
       barrels per day (mb/d), it has only managed up to 3 mb/d  
       since 1979.  One of the underlying reasons for this       
       underproduction is the recurrence of war in contemporary  
       times, but a current shaky ‘stability’ may change this.   
       The political and economic climate of today’s world is    
       largely characterized by globalization and         
       interdependence. An influx of supply and demand in one    
       country may be reflected by changes in policies         
       implemented by another.  Iraq’s recent forecasts in future
       oil production will play a significant role in an economic
       and political ripple of influence among its         
       stakeholders—other oil-producing nations and importing    
       nations. The projected increase of oil production by 9.6  
       mb/d to a total of 12 mb/d, as a result of new contracts, 
       may potentially devastate prices. If this projection comes
       into fruition, it could redefine dominance in OPEC,       
       significantly impacting the current oil hegemon, Saudi    
       Arabia. This paper evaluates various scenarios for Iraq’s 
       forecasted production level in an attempt to assess the   
       most probable economic consequences within the context of 
       the current political climate, through the application of 
       the Supply-Demand Oil Model. We will evaluate three       
       possible scenarios for oil production in Iraq from 2011   
       until 2017; the first scenario at the status quo; the     
       second one at 50 percent of the forecasted amount; and the
       third production capacity at 100 percent, attaining 12 mb/
       d. Through comparative analyses of the primary         
       characteristics that furnish Saudi Arabia with its        
       dominance – superior spare capacity and leading production
       levels – we conclude that, in any scenario, it is unlikely
       for Iraq to become the dominant actor in OPEC by 2017.    
650    Petroleum industry and trade|xPolitical aspects|zIraq.  
650 10   Petroleum industry and trade|zIraq.  Petroleum industry 
       and trade|xEconomic aspects|zIraq.   
710 0   The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research  
710 0   مركز الإمارات للدراسات والبحوث الاستراتيجية