100 1   Jalali, Ali Ahmad 
245  0 Afghanistan:|bChallenges of the Transition to Peace/|cAli 
       A. Jalali  
260    Abu Dhabi :|bThe Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and
       Research,|c2012  
300    85 p. ;|c21 cm.  
490    Emirates lecture series ;|v91  
500    Sustainable peace in Afghanistan can be achieved only     
       through the establishment of an “end-state” that is      
       acceptable to the Afghan people but does not undermine the
       legitimate security interests of other actors in the      
       region and beyond. This necessitates addressing legitimate
       national, regional and international concerns emanating   
       from the Afghanistan situation. The key to achieving this 
       goal is an integrated strategy that combines military     
       strategy with political and developmental strategies.  In 
       developing such strategies, Afghan society needs to be    
       mobilized in pursuit of what its population aspires to    
       instead of what a supply-driven assistance program imposes
       upon it. The success of such a strategy depends on        
       resources, sound Afghan leadership, coordinated         
       international partnership, and – most importantly – time. 
       Given local and regional political and security dynamics, 
       the transition process will be multi-dimensional, complex,
       and nonlinear.  Given the complexities of the regional    
       environment, there is no military solution to the conflict
       in Afghanistan. Sustainable peace should come through a   
       political settlement; and yet, the conflict can be lost   
       militarily. Without military gains in the field, no       
       elements of a political strategy can succeed: the         
       insurgents will have little incentive to enter meaningful 
       peace talks; the government will be unable to hold        
       contested areas to establish effective local government   
       and win over the population; regional actors will continue
       to hedge their bets. Furthermore, lack of military        
       progress will give way to doubts in troop-providing       
       nations about the sagacity of the mission.  A successful  
       transition is contingent on progress in reconciliation    
       with, and reintegration of insurgents. Security         
       arrangements for the process need to accompany peace      
       talks. In this context, the military strategy should play 
       a supporting role creating the space for effective        
       prosecution of the political strategy. The gradual        
       drawdown of US forces should be balanced with shifting the
       security responsibility to Afghan security forces as they 
       progressively become more capable of doing the job. The   
       pace of the drawdown must be “condition-based.” A fast-  
       paced drawdown creates a security vacuum and reduces the  
       chances of drawing the insurgents toward a negotiated     
       political settlement.  Finally, there is a need to        
       emphasize the development of good governance and the rule 
       of law, and to address the key grievances that fuel       
       insurgency. In concrete terms, government reform requires 
       a series of short-term and long-term corrective measures, 
       including: improvement in the center–peripheries         
       relationship; establishing checks and balances on         
       executive power; improving government service-delivery    
       capacity; enforcing the rule of law; and fighting   
650 10   National security|zAfghanistan.  Peace-building
       |zAfghanistan|xInternational cooperation.  Democratization
       |zAfghanistan.  Afghanistan|xPolitics and government|y2001